To predict the winner, follow your gut
People who trust their feelings are more likely to correctly predict outcomes—from the mundane like the weather, to more significant events like the 2012 presidential election.
In the study where respondents were asked to pick the winning candidate in the 2008 primary contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, high–trust–in–feelings respondents correctly predicted Obama’s winning about 72 percent of the time.
By comparison, low–trust respondents only predicted Obama’s winning about 64 percent of the time—a striking result given that major polls reflected an extremely tight race between the two candidates at the time the study was conducted, say researchers at University of Pittsburgh.
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